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Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
Jon Cooksey is making a peak oil film to entertain and educate. A lot of his interviews are available on his web site www.howtoboilafrog.com
And as Charlie Hall has said; it doesn't matter if we have reached peak oil because - supply can not keep up with demand, but that doesn't matter because, - exporting countries are not exporting as much because they are using it themselves, but that doesn't matter because - our Energy Return On Investment is diminishing.
In the beginning, we used a barrel of oil to recover 100 barrels an EROI of 100:1 We are now down to an EROI of 10:1 and when it reaches 1:1 it doesn't matter how much we have in reserve.
We need an EROI of 5:1 to maintain our complex civilization. We already may be seeing signs of it simplifying as we prop up some complex parts and allow other complex parts like bridges and electric grids to fall apart.
Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
If we haven't peaked will will soon, just check this news on China
On January 14, the government-published China Securities Journal ran a pretty common headline on China's recent economic rise: "China Imports Record Amount of Crude Oil." Though crude oil output from China has increased by about 2% per annum over the past few years, an analyst with the State Information Center said, oil consumption grew by 200% more, or 6% per year.
the solar stacks
Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
I still think it's too hard to say. I do agree that we may be close, but the only way to know for sure is to wait for the peak to pass and then look back at the data and say: "There, that's the day. Do you remember where you were?"
It's hard to argue that increased Chinese consumption is going to have any effect in pushing the peak out, but in a strange way it can have that effect.
By increasing demand they increase price, that should spur new exploration, and a re-evaluation of known reserves. It's possible that either existing reserves that are not "economical" at $40 will become so at $140... - or, massive new reserves will be discovered in the aftermath, as a consequence of searching for $150/bbl oil... thereby extending the day of reckoning.
There's just no possible way to sustain the increase in demand for the long term... Something's gotta give. The model must break down. S/D will take over. I think I can confidently say that I could deliver unlimited quantities of crude at $500/bbl adjusted for inflation forever, but who would but it?
Either way, there's still a lot to be said for conservation, renewable, and solar energy!
I think it's a good idea to point out the phenomenon, but impossible to try to pin it down with any certainty.
Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
CT,
Your system sounds just like the solar thermal systems installed by large utilities. The LUX plants in California and now some modern plants like the Sugaru Arizona plant and Nevads solar one.
http://www.aps.com/_files/renewable/SP017SaguaroSolarTrough.pdf
SP017: Saguaro Solar Trough Power PlantLocation: 25044 E. Camino AdelanteRd. (MP 228 & I-10), Red Rock, Arizona Plant Output:1,000,000 Watts ACSolar Mirror Manufacturer: FlabegGmbH, GermanyTotal Mirror Area:110,000 square feet Solar Collector Thermal Capacity:6843 kWPower Block Manufacturer:OrmatType of Tracking:Single AxisProjected Annual Energy Generation:2,000 MWhACEstimated emissions avoided as a result of operating this solar power plant based on APS’2003 fuel mix: CO22,540,000 Lb/yrSOx2,800 Lb/yrNOx5,200 Lb/yrParticulates360 Lb/yrTours are available on the last Wednesday of the month, for reservations call520-682-2110 ext. 114The Solar Trough Power Plant is the first solar electric trough plant to be built in Arizona. The energy of the sun is concentrated 60 times using parabolic trough shaped mirrors to heat a thermal transfer fluid. The thermal transfer fluid is then passed through a heat exchanger to vaporize a secondary working fluid. The vapor is used to spin a turbine/generator making electricity and is condensed back to liquid before being re-vaporized in the heat exchanger once again. The unique part of this plant is using a proven solar collector with an Organic Rankin Cycle power turbine. For more information contact Janet Crow at 602-250-4990 or janet.crow@aps.com
the solar stacks
Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
Bingo!
That's exactly what it is, give or take a little bit. The difference is that we can do it on a far smaller scale 50kW and up. An ideal size for a modest commercial building, strip-mall, warehouse, school, etc...
We're banking on significantly lower costs of the solar concentrators. The SEGS, Solar One, and Saguaro, all use thermo-formed glass/ceramic panels, and that makes them expensive, and heavy! We're going after rooftop systems and were able to keep the weight under 3lbs/sq.ft. We're slso got a different approach to the ORC, we're pulling some of the latent heat of vaporization out of the hot-gas by means of what I've been calling a synthetic heatsink. It will allow us to boost the overall Carnot efficiency "a little bit" (I don't want anyone to think that this is a "silly perpetual motion" type of claim. But the LHV may boost our output by a couple of percent, so even with the relatively low concentrator temperatures we're looking at 15% total system efficiency -- That's on par with the best silicon PV systems today, but at a fraction of the price, and far greater ruggedness. We've had several notables folks (PH.D.s, analysts, engineers) look at the system as a whole and even without any LHV we're looking at 12% electrical output. And that's what we based the $90/MWh claim on (better a pleasant surprise, than a subtle disappointment).
Thanks for reading.
Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
Regardless of whether we've passed peak-oil or are still on our way to peak-oil, the day will come when someone will point to a chart and say: "This was the date of peak-oil production for the world."
So rather than argue about it, what can we do to limit the destructive effects of the slide down the back of that curve? Without going into all the what, how etc. I believe that solar is the solution for the near term and probably for the long run as well. But not PV, at least not silicon based PV. My bet is on concentrating solar. Right now the huge costs of silicon puts the price of industrial scale PV energy above $210/MWh(1), and that's just way too high. Incentives can significantly affect that, but incentives are not something we can build an industry upon.
Certainly in the future folks will look back with fondness of the good-ol-days when oil was *only* $100/bbl but let's not go there.
I'm hoping to stir up some serious interest in a solar alternative that can provide Class 1 electricity (just like PV) but at about $90/MWh(2) This is a system I've been working on since 2001, but have been unable to secure the necessary interest, for all the wrong reasons.
The system which is based on the Rankine Cycle is the same process that is used in all *fired* powerplants uses concentrated sunlight to boil a working fluid which drives an expander that turns a generator; simple. And therein lies the problem. The technology is so somple that investors are unwilling to enter the market.
Before I'm tempted to do a commercial for the product of company, I'll stop, and just solicit some input on the thread.
Also, since I'm working on my web site, I'll take a moment to ask permission to link to this board/forum, naturally I'm hoping to build some traffic, and get the word out...
-----
(1) The energy cost is based on the 20 year economic lifetime of the PV system, and the installed cost of approx $~8/W(peak) which is how systems are rated.
(2) Using the same 20 year lifetime and a much lower $3/W installed cost. this allows us to compare similar systems on an equivalent basis.
Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
another quote showing we are on the edge.
from Entering the Tough Oil Era /Source Tom Dispatch Michael Klare essay on 'The New Energy Pessimism'.
In but one sign of the new reality, the price of benchmark U.S. light, sweet crude oil for next-month delivery soared to new highs on July 31, topping the previous record for intraday trading of $77.03 per barrel set in July 2006. Some observers are predicting that a price of $80 per barrel is just around the corner; while John Kildruff, a perfectly sober analyst at futures broker Man Financial, told Bloomberg.com, "We're only a headline of significance away from $100 oil." New disruptions in Nigerian or Iraqi supplies, or a U.S. military strike against Iran, he explained, could trigger such a price increase in the energy equivalent of a nano-second.
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- Central AC Mister
Peak Oil is a very big topic. Many are very confused by it.
In the USA we already hit peak oil in 1970 and have been importing more than we make ever since. We now import over 62% of our oil. Many people don't know this basic fact that Jimmy Carter tried to make us understand.
Just because the price of gas has been down a little at your local pump in the begining of Aug 2007 don't be fooled. The record profits of oil companies could also mislead you. Even the talk of more oil being found and in the tar sands can lead us astray. Check the facts.
I recently ready an article that shows we have just now hit world wide peak oil. It's from a very highly regarded person. Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based Simmons & Company International, an investment banking firm for the energy industry.
http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=15877
Last Tuesday, the price of oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange set a record, rising as high as $78.40. That exceeded the previous high of $77.03 set in July 2006 at the onset of Israel's war in Lebanon.
The world output of oil actually already peaked in May 2005 at 74.2 million barrels a day, says Mr. Simmons. Since then, production has fallen about 1 million barrels a day (MB/D). If that trend continues, the results for the world economy will be "so real, so devastating" that peak oil concerns will overwhelm slower-moving global warming in grabbing world attention.
WHAT DO YOU THINK ?
solar stacks